"Service to others is the rent you pay for your room here on earth." Muhammad Ali

"Without tradition, art is a flock of sheep without a shepherd. Without innovation, it is a corpse." Winston Churchill

"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." Albert Einstein

Today's image: Torn by michelleBlack. Amazing. Thank you very much for sharing.

Finished reading the Clay Shirky book, Here Comes Everybody. Highly recommended (Amazon info). Over the next few weeks I'll share some lessons learned. Today from Shirky, Chapter 10, Failure For Free. He shares a great quote by Sun Microsystems founder Bill Joy "No matter who you are, most of the smart people work for someone else."

In a presentation on open source (e.g., Linux, SourceForge) and the power of failure Shirky writes...

"Open source is a profound threat, not because the open source ecosystem is outsucceeding commercial efforts but because it is outfailing them. Because the open source ecosystem, and by extension open social systems generally, rely on peer production, the work on those systems can be considerably more experimental, at considerably less cost, than any firm can afford. Why? The most important reasons are that open systems lower the cost of failure, they do not create biases in favor of predictable but substandard outcomes, and they make it simpler to integrate the contributions of people who contribute only a single idea.

The overall effect of failure is its likelihood times its cost. Most organizations attempt to reduce the effect of failure by reducing its likelihood. Imagine that you are spearheading an effort for a firm that wants to become more innovative. You are given a list of promising but speculative ideas, and you have to choose some subset of them for investment. You thus have to guess the likelihood of success or failure for each project. The obvious problem is that no one knows for certain what will succeed and what will fail. A less obvious but potentially more significant problem is that the possible value of various projects is unconnected to anything their designers say about them. In these circumstances, you will inevitably green-light failures and pass on potential successes. Worst still, more people will remember you saying yes to a failure than saying no to a radical but promising idea. Given this asymmetry, you will be pushed to make safe choices, thus systematically undermining the rationale for trying to be more innovative in the first place.

The open source movement makes neither kind of mistake, because it doesn't have employees, it doesn't make investments, it doesn't even make decisions. It is not an organization, it is an ecosystem, and one that is remarkably tolerant of failure. Open source doesn't reduce the likelihood of failure, it reduces the cost of failure; it essentially gets failure for free. This reversal, where the cost of deciding what to try is higher than the cost of actually trying them, is true of open systems generally. As with the mass amateurization of media, open source relies on the 'publish-then-filter' pattern."

First tribe of wireless rings register in the city: 2007 top ten radio billers in millions (BIA). WLTW 62.8, WINS 57.7, WCBS-AM 53.7, WHTZ 52.3, WFAN 37.5, WPLJ 35.8, WSKQ 35.3, WAXQ 34.4, WBLS 33.2, WQHT 32.3.

Bonus: Cluuz

The Pierre & Tom Show: Arbitron and Edison Media Research present topline from their annual study "The Infinite Dial: Radio's Digital Platforms" via webcast tomorrow at 2pm eastern. You'll need to register here.

Disappearing act: The sideman as solo star. I really enjoy reading Mel Phillips' blog, it's one of my guilty pleasures over morning coffee, a unique pop culture mashup. Mel remembers "Music Memories" as part of his format. Which brought to mind, the sideman. Are we witness to the end of days for the sideman turned solo star? Back in the day the instrumental hit song, while rare, was still possible but is that true today? Kenny G plays on but is confined to one format (Smooth Jazz/NAC). I guess you could make the case he is also played occasionally by some soft AC stations. Will today's CHR, AC and Hot AC play an instrumental? This is apropos of nothing, or is it? Radio programming and branding ace Michael Fischer weighs in via comments. Thanks, Michael! Your thoughts are also welcome, please opine via comments. Is the instrumental hit dead? (Perhaps all we need do is await the next blessing of Steve Jobs, the tech CEO turned modern day music director and hitmaker).

Congrats & cheers: Drew Horowitz, Greg Solk and team Bonneville launches 100.3 fm, The Sound, World Class Rock for Southern California. The Webby Noms including: Kurt Hanson's AccuTunes and KEXP (Radio), Ning and Flock (Social Networking), TED and The Onion (Podcasts), Dwell (Magazine), Epicurious (Lifestyle), I Can Has Cheezburger (Humor), American RadioWorks (Education), StumbleUpon (Community), Indexed (Blog - Culture/Personal).

"Obstacles are those frightful things that appear when you take your mind off your goals." David Byrne

"Hunger is the handmaid of genius." Mark Twain

"You really only know when you know little; doubt grows with knowledge." Goethe

Today's image: Down the Centerline by Magic Man. Killer shot. Thanks for sharing.

From The McKinsey Quarterly Top Ten Newsletter...

Matt Guthridge, Emily Lawson and Asmus B. Komm write Making talent a strategic priority and offer their "Top 7 obstacles to good talent management" - here are the top three

1. Senior managers don't spend enough high-quality time on talent management.
2. Organization is "siloed" and does not encourage constructive collaboration, sharing of resources.
3. Line managers are not sufficiently committed to development of people's capabilities and careers.

Bonus: 10 Ways the Internet (As We Know It) Will Die by Alistair Croll

Bonus 2: Media & music wiz (and former RKO and NBC radio programming ace) Mel Phillips bows his brand new site Mel Phillips Now & Then

Congrats & cheers: Jacqueline Hernandez named COO, Telemundo Communications Group. Radio programming ace Gary Saunders promoted to Operations Manager, Service Broadcasting (KKDA AM & FM, KRNB). John Potter appointed VP, Interactive Revenue Development for RAB. Yahoo! AMP! Fun machine Randy Michaels appointed to the NAB TV Board, holding "at large" seat. Pitchfork TV debuts.

Your tax dollars at work: $350 mil, that's the value of the ten-year contract for the US Air Force advertising account retained by GSD&M's Idea City. If we added to this 350 the values of the ad spends for the other services we're talking some pretty big dollars. My thought is why should these accounts be anything other than pro bono?

Video entertainment online, what's happening? TV Week's Greg Baumann says the relevant term is "burn rate". Thanks to AlwaysOn for sharing the video

"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that."

"Power at its best is love implementing the demands of justice. Justice at its best is love correcting everything that stands against love."

"We must combine the toughness of the serpent and the softness of the dove, a tough mind and a tender heart."

Martin Luther King, Jr.

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"The ideas of the past, although half destroyed, being still powerful, and the ideas which are to replace them being still in process of formation, the modern age represents a period of transition and anarchy." Gustave Le Bon

"Great ideas come into the world as quietly as doves. Perhaps then, if we listen attentively, we shall hear the faint fluttering of wings, the gentle stirring of life and hope. Some will say this hope lies in a nation, others, in a man. I believe rather that it is awakened, revived, nourished by millions of individuals whose deeds and works every day negate frontiers and the crudest implications of history. Each and every one builds for all." Camus

"A competing product, if it is never tried, can't act as a reward creating a conflicting habit. Every spouse knows that." Charles Munger

Today's image: Lorain lighthouse at sunset by ronnie44052. Beautiful. Thanks for sharing.

Way back in 1999 I left CBS and signed on with my first dot com. I was the old media guy (radio, TV, cable) given the privilege of working in new media and learning from a bunch of gifted young players. It was the year everyone was reading and talking about Cluetrain (the site). It was the beginning of my love affair with digital media.

If it's been some time since you've read Cluetrain and especially if you've never picked up on it, please take a moment now to lock it into your bookmarks here. Join me in reading Cluetrain again and do join us if it's your first time around. It reads as fresh as spring rain.

Today's post in tribute to Chris, Doc and David. Thanks guys.

people of earth...

A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter—and getting smarter faster than most companies.

These markets are conversations. Their members communicate in language that is natural, open, honest, direct, funny and often shocking. Whether explaining or complaining, joking or serious, the human voice is unmistakably genuine. It can't be faked.

Most corporations, on the other hand, only know how to talk in the soothing, humorless monotone of the mission statement, marketing brochure, and your-call-is-important-to-us busy signal. Same old tone, same old lies. No wonder networked markets have no respect for companies unable or unwilling to speak as they do.

But learning to speak in a human voice is not some trick, nor will corporations convince us they are human with lip service about "listening to customers." They will only sound human when they empower real human beings to speak on their behalf.

While many such people already work for companies today, most companies ignore their ability to deliver genuine knowledge, opting instead to crank out sterile happytalk that insults the intelligence of markets literally too smart to buy it.

However, employees are getting hyperlinked even as markets are. Companies need to listen carefully to both. Mostly, they need to get out of the way so intranetworked employees can converse directly with internetworked markets.

Corporate firewalls have kept smart employees in and smart markets out. It's going to cause real pain to tear those walls down. But the result will be a new kind of conversation. And it will be the most exciting conversation business has ever engaged in.

Read on here. (But don't tap on the glass as it just annoys the animals)

And then he wrote: Dr Dave says "The world is far more interesting than the mainstream media have let on. Blogging is all about discovering just how interesting the world really is." From his post The people vote with their clicks

Bonus: Marc Andreessen makes the case - Benjamin Franklin, blogging role model.

Closed circuit to Chicago Sun-Times: Where's Katie's money?


Legendary Lobel leaving WBZ: New England television sports icon Bob Lobel is leaving CBS' WBZ with a contract buyout, part of the recent company wide budget cutbacks.

I once worked for Bob. He was then and has always remained since a great gentleman. A hard working professional that was never really happy unless the best possible performance had been delivered. Bob delivered more amazing performances than anyone can easily remember, over the last three decades he was always there, a part of many of our most cherished moments of New England victory. During his exemplary career Bob wrote a page turning chapter in the history of sports journalism.

Bob cares about his work, he's deeply passionate and accordingly what he does really matters. Bob will always matter to listeners, to viewers, to colleagues who admire and respect his tireless dedication. He will always mean something special to all of us who, like Bob, truly love the game.

Bob serves as an inspiration to me and a great many others. Thanks Bob. Let the next game begin. Jackie MacMullan covers Bob's story via The Boston Globe here.

Congrats & cheers: Sean Compton joins Tribune as SVP, Programming & Entertainment.

"The first and paramount responsibility of anyone who purports to manage is to manage self - one's own integrity, character, ethics, knowledge, wisdom, temperament, words and acts. It is a never-ending, difficult, oft-shunned task. The reason is not complicated. It is ignored precisely because it is incredibly more difficult than prescribing and controlling the behavior of others." Dee Hock

"Trust thyself; every heart vibrates to that iron string!" Emerson

"There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things." Machiavelli

Today's image: no where man by La caitlin. Great shot. Thanks for sharing.

Gird your loins: David Rosenberg, chief Northern American economist at Merrill Lynch, tells Barron's (Get Set for a More Frugal America)...

"...I do believe we are on the precipice of the first consumer recession in 17 years. It may end up being the worst consumer recession in 30 years...The FDIC is in the process of dramatically bulking up its staff load in preparation for bank failures...Frugality is going to be a source of pride...we're going to learn to live within our means a lot more than we did in the past 20 years."

Meanwhile, Bernanke, on the hill this morning before the joint economic committee, says "It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly" (Bloomberg)

Should a "bad weather" economy actually develop and appear is your organization prepared?

Here's how this relates to media. Consumer spending > Retail sales > Ad spend. It's perhaps too late for your team to get better. Making progress (and this might mean just staying even with last year) in 2008 demands that you get different. Your team will be best served by getting ahead of a soft market. The time to act is now.

How? Fair question, here's one measured take...

Borrell Associates, in association with TvB, recently published Benchmarking TV Web Site Revenues. Here's a bit of that report; Chapter 4, Conclusions & Recommendations...

"The uniform traits among best practice Web sites are:

• An ability to work with non-traditional customers

• Dedicated online-only sales staff

• Thirst for data/research

• Consultative sales strategy

• Greater autonomy

• Higher ad rates

As the Internet becomes more video-centric, this is clearly local broadcasters' game to lose. Newspapers may be losing advertising share on the Internet, but that's only because they grew so fast for so long...Broadcasters would be well advised not to underestimate their potential from interactive media. Gauging that potential and investing appropriately are the first steps. Our recommendations:

• Gauge your market potential
• Gauge your staffing investment
• Get the org structure right
• Adopt a niche mentality for Web content
• Establish online sales goals on market share, not growth or percent of company revenue"

My thanks to Borrell Associates for sharing their well reasoned and wise counsel.

The guys that don't get this sea change are going to continue delegating blame. It's a safe wager the traded firms will lead quarterly calls making excuses about their poor performance, suggesting their revenues are down because of a soft or down market. Nonsense. They're down because they are continuing to do business the same way, only better. They will likely suggest they are now better prepared and better ready to make things happen once the market "comes back."

Hint: Beware the flawed arguments including the always popular "the market was down but we were down less, we beat the market." Again, nonsense.

Analyst should stop accepting these excuses and begin to do their homework, demanding disclosure of, at least, two different market metrics. The individual media silo (e.g., radio, TV, print, et al) and the aggregate, the total DMA ad spend. In other words don't just tell me how you did against your peer media competitors (i.e., TV v. TV), tell me how you did against the entire market (i.e., your stations vs the total of all ad spend in the DMA).

The most deceptive of shell games is the way broadcast is currently reporting online progress. "Revenues up 22%" fails to put the performance into proper context. In broadcast these numbers remain so small (in relative terms) that it is possible for a few thousand dollars attributed to online to bump performance up into those double digits. Again, nonsense.

How did online perform against the total local online market (silo) and then against the entire DMA ad spend (aggregate)? Knowing how one did online against only those in your peer group (e.g., local TV online v. local TV online) is a one dimensional measure that fails to recognize the whole, the true and honest picture of total local market dynamics. It's one thing to be up 22% against yourself, another to be up 11% and leading against your peer group, it's a different ball game to discover your peer shares are actually down in a total online market that is up and growing. Don't kid yourself, context is everything.

To understand what's happening (and not happening) you need to study the big picture. Face reality as it is, not as it was nor as you wish it to be.

Good news. No, make that excellent news! Now is the time to gain significant ground and build a sustainable strategic advantage against those busy making excuses.

The objective should be: change the denominator.

Don't delay

Get serious

Get different, now!