"I have to be wrong a certain number of times in order to be right a certain number of times. However, in order to be either, I must first make a decision." Frank N. Giampietro

"You have not done enough, you have never done enough, so long as it is still possible that you have something to contribute." Dag Hammarskjold

"A trifle is often pregnant with high importance; the prudent man neglects no circumstance." Sophocles

Today's image: untitled by Hanna L. Wonderful. Thank you for sharing.

Doing the homework for an upcoming talk and noticed more than one canard needing attention. Allow me to take this opportunity to disabuse you of three patently false notions. With apologies to Adam and Jamie let's get on to some myth busting...

1. The youth no longer listens to radio (alternatively, youth listening is in serious and irreversible decline).

Busted. Not supported by the facts. One example. Radio programming ace Brian Kelly has gained reach among Milwaukee youth improving his 12-17 cume persons rating book after book. The most recent numbers, Fall 2008, show Brian's 103.7 KISS FM posting an increase in teen cume rating of over 36% compared to the earlier Spring numbers. Further, Brian's team continued to deliver exceptional adult numbers. #1 Adults 18-34, Adults 18-49, Women 18-34, Women 18-49 and Women 25-54. This is only part of the story. 103.7 KISS FM captured the highest share of Women 18-34 of any station in the nation delivering an incredible 25.6 share. Those Gen X and Gen Y women are obviously tuned in and happy. But it's the combined performance of 103.7 KISS FM and sister station 99.1 WMYX that is truly amazing. Brian Kelly has built much more than two successful radio stations, he's built and leads a team and they're on a mission to create killer radio from scratch every single day. Clearly, it's working. Word to the wise: take notes.

2. College students have no interest in or involvement with creating radio.

Busted. Facts counter the argument. Exhibit A: WSUM FM, the student radio station at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. Hundreds of students are seriously engaged and involved in playing radio. In fact, there's a waiting list to participate. Best of all, the station sounds great. Don't take my word for it, listen in, they're streaming, here.

3. CBS is making a major strategic error in LA. The abandonment of talk on FM and the debut of a new Top 40 music format.

Since I was not invited to be a party to the discussions concerning the business objectives of CBS Radio in LA please permit me to speculate. Having given this matter considerable thought, Dan Mason and his team have come to believe that they have a better than even chance to win, to be in a better economic position because of the changes.

But wait, there's more. Some experts are suggesting talk is the single best long-term strategy for winning on FM and some LA market watchers are claiming that KISS FM is practically invincible. In their view CBS is walking away from the future of FM and taking on a fool's errand. Let's take these down in separate responses.

Busted. While the "all music formats on radio are dead" meme is said by advocates to be stuff born of pure critical thinking, it ain't necessarily so. Please see #1 above. Music radio is very much alive and well and profitable. The gang that's pushing to get music off of FM stations, those calling spoken word programming the only true salvation securing radio's future are promoting a thesis that's too clever by half. Among pubcasters this flawed notion is taking on the authority of a pragmatic sanction (i.e., industry consultants and thought leaders supported by the research demanded we do it). Music isn't what's getting radio into trouble or putting it in harm's way. My sense remains that responsibility is one of leadership and a massive failure of imagination.

Busted. Incumbency is irrelevant. One need only recall the events of 1986. KISS enjoyed a 10 share and unprecedented success. Emmis launched Power 106 becoming the new market leader in less than one year. The sheer idiocy here is calling the new CBS music format a loser or a failed strategy when it has not yet been heard (as of this writing). Let's agree to follow the counsel of my longtime friend Rick Sklar and give the CBS gang the benefit of being on the air for a month before beginning to listen critically. Let's also agree to let the audience and advertisers weigh in before making any declaration.

Thanks for stopping by. Have a great weekend. See you next week in a brand new show.

"A grapefruit is a lemon that had a chance and took advantage of it." Oscar Wilde

"Make chance essential." Paul Klee

"The hardest thing to see is what is in front of your eyes." Goethe

Today's image: Yellow rose - Radiant Perfume Rose by RosePhotosEtc. Beautiful. Thanks.


The Emmis earnings call yesterday was refreshing. Unvarnished candor without the graduate level dog ate my homework excuse making.

Finally, someone had the courage to speak up and talk about reality as it is, not as it was or as some wish it to be. Bravos to Jeff Smulyan!

While Jeff is right to suggest we may well have reached the "worst-point in the history of the industry" he is, in my opinion, equally right to be optimistic.

Let's review the bidding.

The first tribe of wireless starts this year with an estimated 233 million weekly users, reaching 93% of Americans.

Early indications from the PPM data tell us radio's reach is robust, greater even than the reach now revealed by diary capture.

We have at hand empirical data on radio's effectiveness thanks to the ground-breaking and ongoing work of the Radio Ad Effectiveness Lab.

While radio is not growing revenues (or bcf) the generation of free cash remains strong. Radio stocks have no chance of coming back until growth, that bitch goddess of Wall Street, is clearly in evidence.

2008 can be a tipping point, a second chance.

Today's sales crisis (and truth be known that is exactly what we are experiencing, a full blown crisis years in the making) should serve as the final wakeup call, the needed catalyst for change.

Jeff is also right when he says "demand is the issue." As a practical matter, we have to get serious about creating that demand. We need to keep the AV (audacity and veracity) dialed up to eleven.

What's needed now more than ever before is effective leadership.

No one is going to save us, we have to save ourselves. Let me close with Dr Hamel...

"What ultimately constrains the performance of your organization is not its business model, nor its operating model, but its management model...management innovation has a unique capacity to create a long term advantage for your company...frankly, today's best practices aren't good enough...I dream of organizations that are capable of spontaneous renewal, where the drama of change is unaccompanied by the wrenching trauma of a turnaround. I dream of businesses where an electric current of innovation pulses through every activity, where the renegades always trump the reactionaries. I dream of companies that actually deserve the passion and creativity of the folks who work there, and naturally elicit the very best that people have to give. Of course, these are more than dreams; they are imperatives. They are do or die challenges for any company that hopes to thrive in the tumultuous times ahead - and they can only be surmounted with inspired management innovation...'management' as currently practiced, is a drag on success" Gary Hamel, The Future of Management

Bonus: Larry Shannon - That's Where America Talks. Kudos to Larry, well said!

But wait, there's more: Kurt Hanson weighs in on the new HD Radio Alliance creative - HD Radio Alliance found a workable tactic...but it's off-strategy here. Reading Kurt's post reminds me. Please let us see the research finding supporting the claim (among others) that HD Radio has a 77% awareness.

Older men take control of perfectly good student radio station: Doing it only to amuse themselves, Bruce Ravid will host and be joined by Tom Teuber, Rick Murphy, Dave Benson and others in the eight hour take over of WSUM. It's scheduled to happen on Tuesday, January 15 beginning at 10 am. Don't miss it if you can.

Next time: Closed circuit to Radio CEOs - The 2008 To Do List

From TED, must see video, J. J. Abrams: The mystery box

Photo:

Cocktail at Sunset

by

Thomas Hawk

Thank you!

"El ojo del amo engorda el caballo" Spanish proverb

"The eye of the master fattens the horse" says the proverb. When the boss is not involved workers may be less than productive. Seems an apt quotation for today's discussion.

Any reading of radio's performance in the top five markets is enough to give one pause.

Change and Emmis.

Emmis tells us their #1 priority is turning around New York and LA. In LA, their ad spend to support MoVin represents the single largest promotion expense in the history of the company. While silent on Chicago, the stations there remain challenged and without a programming chief after two PDs were summarily dismissed.

Change and CBS.

Dan Mason comes home to CBS Radio, his first day in the office two senior officers are cashiered. In Dan's first weeks failing stations in San Francisco and New York change formats.

Change and ABC?

Farid no doubt wonders about his soon to be AM group. While CBS' three AM properties in New York, his former charges, are each billing 50 something mil, WABC is putting 20 something on the books. In LA, Clear Channel's KFI is writing big business but KABC plays far behind. In Chicago, WGN and WBBM-AM each put high 40s on the pad meanwhile WLS fails to produce 2 mil a month. Clearly, ABC radio has got some catching up to do in sales. The exception to this observation, of course, is the exemplary job Mickey continues to do with the firm's bay area properties.

Change is good. Stasis is bad.

In recent years it has become acceptable for a station to fail and to continue failing without change. For example, a perfectly good FM signal in a top five market was allowed to produce a failing ratings performance without any readily apparent consequence. And this happened not once, not twice but for years. At one point, CBS' three full-powered FM stations in the city were each failing to break a two share but no one really seemed too concerned. Book after book. Stasis. It's what happens when you take your eye off the ball. When you decide not to decide. When you permit yourself to rationalize failure and settle.

These are the results and unintended consequences of a massive failure of imagination. The dangers of being lulled into a false sense of competence, the key words of resignation, assent and acquiescence..."it is what it is." Inertia is a force of nature and a difficult one to confront. It's hard work to think, to stand up and challenge industry dogma. Kipling may have said it best "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you. If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you. But make allowance for their doubting too."

What we allow, we encourage. As ratings failure was allowed, revenue expectations were diminished. To preserve and grow bcf, radio became - without recourse - a penny precious enterprise and no longer the spendthrift venture of nickels and dimes.

Stations in the top five markets are the canaries in radio's coal mine.

Time to reboot the bad radio. Time to end the benign neglect, the tolerance and acceptance of mediocrity. That playbook ain't working. Time to unlearn. The reboot starts with leadership and attitude. Begins with a respect for the fundamentals, the drivers of ratings and revenue - nothing less than excellence in programming and sales. Disraeli said "Mediocrity can talk; but it is for genius to observe."

The really cool thing is radio is nimble, audio being the most agile of measured media.

Bravos to Rick and Dan. Congrats to Farid. Cheers to all. They will fix their broken stuff. They no longer have any other choice. It will take the eyes of the masters to fatten the horses.

Congrats & cheers: Kipper McGee on a wonderful, memorable and simply amazing day of great radio on WLS - The Big 89 Rewind. Having fun on the radio, now there's a fresh approach! Kipper gets it. When every other station is fielding the B team or running some banal best of to fill out the holiday hours, that's the perfect moment to unleash the fresh A team and write some history. The play's the thing. Bravo to the players: Larry Lujack, Tommy Edwards, Fred Winston, Chris Shebel, Jeff Davis, John Landecker, and Tom Kent. Lyle Dean, Les Grobstein, Linda Marshall, Catherine Johns, and Gil Gross. Stay tuned. Jeff Davis has audio via podcast on the way.

Bill Todd has passed. I knew Bill during his Chicago days when he led the charge at WDAI. Mel Phillips remembers Bill here. My thoughts and prayers are with Bill's wife Tina and his daughters Ashley and Nikki. Should you wish to join me and send a check to Tina, you'll find the info here. She is also asking for folks to send along any photos they may have of Bill. Bill was a good man. A successful performer turned skilled and savvy programmer. He worked at ABC during the days when programming was prized, when their PD ranks were filled with smart people like Bill. While it might be hard to imagine today, ABC was also once home to great sellers, the ABC stations were nationally recognized and respected for their exceptional sales organizations. ABC stations, much like the RKO stations of that era, were market leaders in ratings, revenue and attracting the best people. Bill Todd was one of those gifted and special enough to have worked for both RKO and ABC. Back in the day that was most rare, a small club of the industry elite, the best professionals and akin to making the short list of the short list.

Perspective: James H. Duncan, Jr writing in his Tenth Anniversary Issue of American Radio ranked the leading groups of 1977, 12+ weekly cume was the data point...

1. ABC
2. CBS
3. RKO
4. Westinghouse
5. Capital Cities
6. Metromedia
7. NBC
8. Bonneville
9. Cox
10. Storer

Jim also provided the nation's leading stations ranked by 12+ TSA AQH, Spring 1977, only one FM made the cut...

1. WABC
2. WOR
3. WLS
4. WGN
5. WCBS
6. WBLS
7. WJR
8. WINS
9. KDKA
10. WCCO

By the Spring of 1986, using the same metric, the majority had become FM stations; only four of the 1977 group appeared again in the '86 top ten...

1. WHTZ
2. WRKS
3. WPLJ
4. WGN
5. WOR
6. WINS
7. WPAT-FM
8. WLTW
9. KABC
10. WBLS

The Spring of 1991, same data point...

1. WCBS-FM
2. WRKS
3. WPAT AM & FM
4. WOR
5. WLTW
6. KOST
7. WGN
8. WINS
9. WNSR
10. WQHT

There is simply no good reason why you should refrain - make something amazing happen this week.

Photo: Never is enough by TheAlieness Clever, playful image. Thank you

"Involvement seems to me to be everything in communication. If I do everything as the sender, the only thing left for the receiver to do is to refute it. Because the only contribution you can make is to disagree with me." Jeremy Bullmore

"It wins time.

Apart from Londoners on tube platforms reading posters until the train comes in, very few people have time to spare for all the messages people want to give them. How many people stop and look at a new pack on the supermarket shelf? How many spend time considering a new financial product when a brochure arrives in the mail? How many do more than glance at an annual report? The most precious gift a designer can give a client is the gift of someone else's time.

'Interactivity' is the buzz term for today. Depending on their energy levels and enthusiasm for the latest technology, designers are either trying to get to grips with it or trying not to think about it. But witty graphics have been interactive since the days of the long-playing record. The designer sets up an open not a closed system.

For example, most signs are straightforward, like 'Fire Exit' or 'No Parking.' What about a sign that gives information in a witty way? Suppose it says 'No Parking - don't even think about it'? This is a message with more than one layer. It acknowledges that not all drivers will simply go off and look for another space. Some people see the message, read the message, think about the message and decide to ignore the message. The 'don't-even-think about-it' sign accompanies that thought process, as it were. Then the mind considers the options, the sign makes a second hit. This is one aspect of participation, predicting and entering the dialogue.

Another aspect of participation is making demands on the audience. Imagine that there is a clothesline which stretches from the designer sending the communication to the person receiving it. If the communication is merely 'Fire Exit', the designer comes 100% along the clothesline, and the person at the other end doesn't have to move an inch. It is the same with any piece of straight information - it expects a passive recipient.

But when wit is involved, the designer never travels 100% of the way. The idea has to be 'seen' or decoded, and this demands an active recipient. The audience may need to travel only 5% or as much as 40% toward the designer in order to unlock the puzzle and get the idea. Wit invites participation because it asks the reader or viewer to take part in the communication of the idea. It is as if the designer throws a ball which then has to be caught. So the recipient is alert, with an active mind and a brain in gear." Beryl McAlhone & David Stuart from their wonderful book A Smile in the Mind. Amazon info here.

The notion of letting the reader, the viewer "fill in the blank" is very powerful. In film think Hitchcock's dark at the top of the stairs, arresting indeed; it's what you don't see. The concept also works very effectively in audio, one engages the listener mind. Let the listener fill in the blank. Encourage vicarious participation. Dare to involve the audience!

Opening Day: My thanks to programming ace Tom Teuber. Enjoyed a great lunch and some wonderful conversation. Tom has the gift of a storyteller. He painted vivid pictures from his childhood including his first time on the radio. It was the day he was an in-studio guest of the legendary Dan Sorkin on WCFL. Lucky for us the kid was never the same.

Thanks 2: Cara Carriveau checks in. She has some cool new audio now on offer - check out Cara's Basement here.

In all of art, it's the singer not the song: Seems fair to reprise the wise words of PJ. The Emmis Indy gang are getting out of the "remote" bidness. Fine but they have over-reached in making the claim that remotes don't work. What they should have said was commercial remotes, as they have been staging them, don't work. Check out the web page devoted to their announcement here. Those pics are just plain sad. They say it all. A jock phoning it in from a retailer, standing at a card table with station banner skirting or standing next to the station suv - nothing to write home about. Never has been. Where's the show? At least in the fifties a hop was, well, a hop. An actual event. An event that created traffic for the retailer and a fun experience for those who showed up.

As with any promotion the first question that should be asked is "are we asking folks to do something that we would never do? Would anyone have an interest in doing this? Why?" If the staff would never consider going to the remote why would a listener?

The same test holds true for gaming or contesting. Stations continue to ask listeners and viewers to do things staff would never even consider doing to have a chance at winning prizes no staffer wants. You know you are offering up the right premium when staff wants some. You know you're doing a remote "right" when staff shows up on their own time because they don't want to miss it. Here's the first clue. Broadcast from where people are or where they want to be. Nothing wrong with broadcasting from a retailer just ensure there is an appropriate reward, a pay off for their investment of time and attention. What's the attraction? What's the big deal? What's in it for the listener or the viewer? The idea is to broadcast from an event. Design the event first, the broadcast second.

Kudos to Emmis for having the courage to out bad execution and kill it. My sense is Paige Nienaber would have a creative solution and that is just what is called for here. The dirty little secret is remotes do work however they require thought, old fashioned hard work and a process most station folks simply don't understand. Station promotion teams, in the majority, don't know how to stage events from scratch; they don't know what they don't know. This is part of the "avail as blood sport" sales driven madness. The goal should be creating traffic. What would have to happen to get people into the tent? Once there what would make folks feel good about their decision, good enough to tell friends and family about the experience?

If the only thing happening is your talent showing up, if that's truly all you've got, you'd better have talent - talent people will go completely out of their way to meet.

In all of art, it's the singer not the song.

P.S. Clearly Emmis knows how to do the big remotes right - here's one example.

Red wine: Codice 2004 is another good Spanish red available for under $10. Vino de la Tierra de Castilla. The Eguren family are producers of fine wines in the old traditions of Spain. Hard to find better wine at these prices. Enjoy.