"It’s harder to imagine the past that went away than it is to imagine the future. What we were prior to our latest batch of technology is, in a way, unknowable. It would be harder to accurately imagine what New York City was like the day before the advent of broadcast television than to imagine what it will be like after life-size broadcast holography comes online. But actually the New York without the television is more mysterious, because we’ve already been there and nobody paid any attention. That world is gone." William Gibson
“Content is always shaped by the container.” Robert Tercek
"Productive paranoia is the ability to be hyper-vigilant about potentially bad events that can hit your company and then turn that fear into preparation and clearheaded action." Morten T. Hansen
Welcome to the countdown. The waning days of 2011. The stage setting days which serve as the 2012 prologue. All the best to you, may you deliver your 2011 numbers and then some.
My thought is these are some of the most important issues for 2012. They deserve your attention, consideration, study, discussion and critical thinking. Thereafter, decisive action is required.
Mobile
Social
Cloud
HTML5
Data
Real-time
Revenue development
Metrics (Related: Dashboard Design)
Talent
In the coming weeks I'll blog about each issue.
On mobile, let me suggest too few media properties have made the investment required to create a solid mobile version of their website. In 2012, this is no longer optional, it's not a luxury or a nice-to-have, a mobile version of your site will be required for you to stay competitive. Having an app is fine, however, it is simply not a substitute for a great mobile version of your site.
This past week, Google began asking if you're "READY TO GO MO?" They've launched a mobile initiative that you may use to learn more about what it takes to be mobile-friendly and you may also test your site's mobility, here.
Believing it important to eat my own dog food, I was able, with Google's help, to launch the mobile version of N=1 this past summer.
Wanted: leadership in sales innovation and revenue development. Two recent exhibits of the ongoing revenue crisis in both donation-supported and ad-supported media. This round, it's broadcast television, public and commercial.
In harm's way: Ebert Presents At The Movies. Roger Ebert writes "Unless we find an angel, our television program will go off the air at the end of its current season. There. I've said it. Usually in television, people use evasive language. Not me. We'll be gone. I want to be honest about why this is. We can't afford to finance it any longer." The show is cleared in all of the top 50 markets by public stations. Affiliates get the show for free. It's produced at WTTW in Chicago and distributed by American Public Television (APT). The catch? Roger is the only source of funding. They have been unable to attract the underwriting needed to cover costs. Tragic. Read Roger's column, here.
Sales Couldn't Sell "The Simpsons" by Fred Jacobs viajacoBLOG
Bonus: Radio programming ace, Mark Edwards blogs about the first tribe of wireless. Is Local Radio Dead? In Some Ways It Is, But Owners Don't Know It Yet, here
Monday, October 31, 2011
"You can tell whether a man is clever by his answers. You can tell whether a man is wise by his questions." Naguib Mahfouz
"Scientists are explorers, philosophers are tourists." Richard Feynman
Happy Halloween! During my annual the doc told me I had to lay off the boos.
Doesn't anybody stay in one place anymore?
With thanks to Carole King, let me suggest that in the massive, ongoing sea change that is digital disruption, few of us are staying in one place anymore. Consider this proffer: Your media consumption, your behavior, will be as different five years from today as your behavior today is from what it was ten years ago. Your media production, your acts of creation and those of everyone have been assisted, enabled in truly profound ways.
Let's take one of the moving parts: social networks. Facebook and Twitter are first generation platforms. Both have made a significant impact. Both enjoy global reach. Both are building a business, a brand, without the need to invest resources in traditional marketing channels (i.e., advertising). In fact, ad-supported measured media have been the aggressive, albeit unpaid, promotional partners of both. "We all need to spend more time on Facebook" opined Tom Webster, Edison Research's Vice President, Strategy and Marketing (and their resident social scholar). Of course, Tom's right. Last week, Jacob Media's Lori Lewis and Fred Jacobs issued a clarion call about social, Time Suck: "...it's time to adapt to a multi-channel environment and study the motivations behind each channel. Or simply get left behind..."
Nobody stays in one place anymore.
Occasionally I hear from folks kind enough to ask me why I'm not blogging any longer. It's a fair question given 200+ posts a year appeared in this space during 2006, 2007 and 2008. Recent years not so much. 54 posts in 2009, 13 in 2010 and, with this, 8 posts so far this year. The quick answer is I'm still sharing my thoughts but not in this one place anymore. For example, 3 years, 7 months and 15 days ago I began posting on Twitter. My guess is I'm sharing far more on Twitter than I was ever able to share here because I can tweet a real-time link to something just read. Moreover, I can do that on the fly without my laptop or desk top via a hand-held device. The sense of time and space has changed dramatically in recent years.
This is not to suggest blogs are dead or on the way out. Nonsense. My take: there are more and better blogs than there have ever been and I have a reader full of unread posts to prove it. The signal to noise ratio is also greatly improved because our tuning tools are better. As Nathan Jurgenson wrote just yesterday "Social media is like radio: It all depends on how you tune it." [Why Chomsky is wrong about Twitter] My sense is there's nothing wrong with the fire hose. Shirky was right. What we have is a filter problem.
Some might say I have over-shared on Twitter. 36,396 tweets and counting. Guilty, not every tweet has been a gem worthy of a retweet. Let me also say I love to blog and will continue to use this space to share thoughts that require more space and time. This blog isn't dead, yet. It has simply become only one of the places where I'm living out loud. Humblebrag: I'm told my smiling clown Twitter account ranks 107,373 out of the 10,999,157 scored by grader.com so I'm closing in on breaking into the exclusive five figures club.
While I'm not able to comment on the veracity of such rankings or grades, it's interesting to note Grader's Top 100 Twitter Elite includes only three American media outlets. Fox News at #14. Huffington Post Washington bureau at #18. New York Times at #76. The list is dominated by individuals. This seems to hold true across DMA after DMA. Media, broadcasters especially, should be doing a much better job. Congrats to Thomas Clifford, my Twitter pal from Appleton, Wisconsin. He's ranked #9 and lives by the motto "Find out what sucks and don't do that."
Want to gain solid insight into the emergent metrics of social? In my experience, the go-to-guy on social media data is the aforementioned Tom Webster. You may find his blog, brandsavant, here.
Doing business in 2011 without having some kind of personal digital presence (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, blog) is equivalent to trying to do business in 1990 without a telephone number or fax machine or claiming you're competitive in business ten years ago without having an email account. Table stakes. What's changing is not only the cost of doing business but the resources required to be and stay competitive in business. New devices are also changing consumer behaviors. Example: Amazon is offering a tablet which, it may be argued, is a personalized point of sale device. The prospective impacts of social commerce are magnitudes of net force larger than the changes brought about so far by today's nascent social networks.
Identity is being redefined
Who are you on the web? Used to be having email was enough. Now, Facebook, Google, Twitter and players to be named, are in a battle to own the so-called identity space. Twitter, being asymmetrical, gained an early edge over symmetrical Facebook but Zuck changed it up adding the asymmetric feature "Subscribe." It's the Wild West, no standards yet for "social authentication." It's an important issue. Stay tuned.
It's the dawn of this digital disruption. The best is yet to come. My suggestion is we'll look back on 2011 someday soon and laugh about how lame, crude all of these early platforms really were. But in the meantime, in between time, the conversation is happening with or without you so it's important to get into the game. Now more than ever, your assets must be digital, discoverable and ready to share. Be yourself. Have fun. Share.
Another example of being in more than one place. This is a must-read not shared here last month but via my posterous. Speaking at Social Media Week - Chicago, the great media critic Robert Feder said...
"...It's about engaging the reader and that's one aspect of it but it's
an important part of the new media and the world that we're in and that
didn't happen in old media, that didn't happen at the Sun-Times. We
wrote our piece, we went home, that was it. It was a monologue delivered
and that was the end of the process...people, younger people in
particular, are engaged in all media they consume and that includes news
and journalism and they want to be able to react, they want to be able
to use it in different ways, and that's what we're affording them the
opportunity to do. I'm just setting the table, I'm starting the
conversation every day and what happens out there is up to the people
who read it."
Emphasis above (bold) mine. Robert speaks of a fundamental change. From delivering a monologue to starting a conversation. The difference is engagement. Once upon a time print writers heard from readers when readers had taken the time to call or write a letter to them or the editor. Letters, delivered a day or so after, may or may not have been edited and published. We didn't get to read the mail of the newspaper writer. Today we do and find it odd if the ability to comment fails to follow an online writing.
Robert offered many interesting and important points during his talk, here's another:
To me, you should never take your eye off the quality of the content, that's what matters
The play's the thing. It was ever thus. Read more excerpts from Robert's thought-provoking appearance, here.
Refresh: The People Formerly Known as the Audience, written by Jay Rosen in the summer of 2006, deserves a fresh reading, here.
Video: "Studies show that sketching and doodling improve our comprehension - and our creative thinking. Sunni Brown makes the case for unlocking your brain via pad and pen." I highly recommend her book, Gamestorming: A Playbook for Innovators, Rulebreakers, and Changemakers [Amazon info]
Monday, September 19, 2011
"It's part of the mythology surrounding the music business that spending huge amounts of marketing monies will ensure commercial success. This simply isn't so. If the music isn't compelling from the audience's perspective, no amount of spending will make it a hit." Al Teller
"The thing most people want is genuine understanding. If you can understand the feelings and moods of another person, you have something fine to offer." Paul Brock
"The only things that evolve by themselves in an organization are disorder, friction and malperformance." Peter Drucker
A great interview with Al Teller. Al talks about the past, present and future of the music business. Teller started in the record industry as an assistant to the legendary Clive Davis. He went on to head labels including UA, Columbia, CBS and MCA. My thanks to Ian Rogers, host of This Week in Music, for sharing the video.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
"Amateurs hope; professionals work." Garson Kanin
"Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is." Vince Lombardi
"Before it can be solved, a problem must be clearly stated and defined." William Feather
The new Geoffrey Moore, Escape Velocity: Free Your Company's Future from the Pull of the Past, is topical and a great follow-on to his earlier writings. [Amazon info]
Monday, September 05, 2011
"What the customer buys and considers value is never a product. It is always utility - that is, what a product does for him." Peter Drucker
"Life is pretty simple. You do some stuff. Most fails. Some works. You do more of what works. If it works big, others quickly copy it. Then you do something else. The trick is in doing something else." - Tom Peters
"If you are not paying for it, you're not the customer; you're the product being sold." - Andrew Lewis Today's image: Hey! by Fred Winston. Great shot. Thanks for sharing.
Welcome to September.
As we begin both the last frenetic drive to make our numbers before the 2011 clock runs out and the ritual dance that is the annual budget process, some loose ends for your consideration. As always, your thoughts are welcome.
Start playing the game thinking ahead two moves or more
Critical thinking and serious listening continue to provide exceptional yields. Paul Drew often said planning afforded the best possible ROI. He was spot-on. Putting scenario planning and game theory to work are but two solid options. Let's begin by asking the important question...
What if?
What if transactional business died?
Spots and dots represent the single most important revenue engine of the broadcast trade but what if, without notice, transactional revenues precipitously declined?
We must ask such prescient questions.
I'm reminded of that famous speech at the 1975 NARM, The Day Radio Died delivered by the gifted Stan Cornyn, then a senior Warner Brothers executive. As it happened, Stan had asked exactly the right question at precisely the wrong time (the record industry, being in high cotton, dismissed his provocative thought experiment).
It's critical that we play ahead.
Here's a practical example deserving discussion: How are we going to optimize political in 2012 and what's our strategy for beating those numbers in 2013 without that cyclical gift? Importantly, what if political allocated to broadcast is reduced or doesn't come back at all in the 2014 midterm or the 2016 federal? Isn't this a perfect time to entertain the notion that an RAB/TvB led task force be established to work these cycles? From K Street to every campaign headquarters, PAC and all of the political consulting firms there are stories to be told, value propositions to evangelize and champion.
On the day job we were criticized some years ago for daring to ask "What if?" Specifically, when the automotive category went south we initiated conversations grounded in the brutal candor of fresh circumstance. We began asking "What if it doesn't come back? What if it does come back and the dollars are shifted, less broadcast and more other including interactive? How then do we compete?" The situation was indeed tragic. Some long established car stores, the majority perennial broadcast clients, closed forever. Time spent in scenario planning paid off. Our clients paced ahead the next two years having developed strategies to replace 60% or more of their local, zone and national auto spend (i.e., dealer, association, factory dollars). Moreover, we developed new strategies and tactics for auto to more effectively employ broadcast and in that process totally reimagined and rebooted the category.
What if your transactional business died? What exactly is your strategy for staying in business? The exercise is important. Rather than wasting time in a hypothetical "losing it all next year" discussion let's first imagine 2012 as the year transactional is off by 12%, your attrition rate doubles, your DSO adds 10 more days and you lose both your top seller and your DOS. What's your plan to deliver your numbers? Ask "What would have to happen?" for us to make our numbers given a set of specific conditions (ninjas of finance call such probabilistic conditions "assumptions"). Using worst-case scenarios can be productive if they are not simply possible but also credible.
We must embrace the simple reality that transactional is, in essence, a commodity business. As such, this segment of media spend is more likely than not to move away from personal selling and into the more efficient realm of machine trading. The strategic issue here is how do we optimize participation in this commodity trading process and at the same time develop a separate sales organization focused on selling solutions rather than numbers? How do we move from responding to an avail to working with clients in a creative collaboration to produce results? We have an urgent need to do both.
Sidebar: During my time with CBS Mel Karmazin asked me to consider putting Howard Stern on one of our Dallas stations. Howard was not cleared in the market at the time. One of my first thoughts was "What happens if the airplane goes down?" Experience had taught me that the best time to look for talent was before you needed them. Fast forward. Howard announces he's leaving and suddenly at risk are ratings at a bunch of stations and what has been estimated to be about 100 million in CBS billing. It became clear there had been no serious succession planning prior to Howard's announcement. History records this as a fire drill where people were sent into the burning buildings.
As the proverb says: The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is today. Mind the wise counsel of Tom Peters "The trick is in doing something else." Let's get to work.
The major advances in civilization are processes that all but wreck the societies in which they occur Alfred North Whitehead
Bonus: Erik Sass provides an interesting overview of what's happening and not happening in American advertising. Winners and Losers: The Changing Media Ad Landscape, 1980 -2011, here.
Flashback: The challenges faced by music radio today simply demand the aggressive employment of innovation and creativity. N=1, August, 2004.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Martin Atkins
"It's not a problem if 20,000 people 'illegally' download your music. It's a problem if they don't."
"There are no airbags in the music industry. When it goes wrong YOUR head is going through the windshield."
"Technical proficiency is a dead-end. There will always be someone better. Instead focus on diversifying your skill set."
All three of our quotes today are from Martin Atkins. Martin, an accomplished entrepreneur, is a celebrated musician, author and teacher that we can all learn something from. As it happens, you can download his most recent book for free, here (offer expires October 31, 2011). Let me also encourage you to read Greg Kot's article SXSW 2011: Martin Atkins throws blueberry muffins at music industry via Chicago Tribune, here.
What's new about news: Michael Rosenblum offers his latest post on what's not happening in the 6:30 news wars. Why TV News is so VERY TERRIBLE (and why ratings keep dropping), here.
Good read: Insights with Sir Martin Sorrell by Simon Rogers. From Google's latest Think Quarterly, The Innovation issue - here - other good reads also in this issue, worth the jump.
Bravos: GMail team, very clever and a solid initiative to prompt Google account signups. Email intervention.
Google+ tumblr and Spotify are three of this summer's biggest hits. You may find me on g+ via my Google Profile link (in the left column of this page). NEW: started a blog about Google+, here.
Bonus: Kevin Kelly is suggesting the future of the internet can be reduced to six verbs.
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing
Generating
My sense is Kevin's thesis is spot-on and simply brilliant. The following video of Kevin's NExTWORK talk about those six verbs is well worth your bandwidth. Bravos to kk.
Where ever attention flows
money will follow
Saturday, June 25, 2011
"The 'best' investment you can make isn't gold. It's the people you love, the dreams you have, and living a life that matters." Umair Haque
[Is content king?] “I don’t agree with that...I think it sends you down the wrong track. I’d say the emphasis is on relevance and usefulness. The danger with the content story is — the most powerful thing you could do to me as a brand if I went to [a music festival] is you could chill my beer for me. If you pursue ‘content,’ you won’t come up with that idea. And if you go to the airport and get power from Nokia or Sony, that’s much more meaningful to me as a brand. I think content steers you away from that. I think content is a subset of that, if it’s relevant and useful. But the more fundamental thing is for brands to have a meaningful relationship and engagement with their audience.”Carl Johnson
"The change in the Web’s direction is a clear indication to me that we aren’t just in the midst of a boom for new interaction modes, but rather in a generational overhaul of the Internet." Ben Elowitz
Please let me suggest you click on the link following each quote above. Each, and all, is a good read. It's a beautiful day here in flyoverland. All the best to you, enjoy your summer!
Bonus: How to make a clock run for 10,000 years. A great read, here.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
"The whole point of any medium, where it is video or writing or painting or film is to expand our thinking and expose us to new ideas, not repeat the same ones over and over ad infinitum...Tell me what I don't know. Tell me what I never even thought about before." Michael Rosenblum
" For it to be a content business, content people have to run the company. The business has to be obsessed with what it’s consumers want and be able to give them that and much more. In fact then need to give them things that they didn’t know they wanted. Content consumers ultimately need to be surprised and fully expect their sources of information to be smarter than they are about the topics they are reading or viewing." Larry Kramer
"It will be very hard for people to watch or consume something that has not in some sense been tailored for them." Eric Schmidt
Let's suppose you launched a business in November of 2008 and in April of 2010 your business had achieved a value of approx $1.35 billion. Let us say your revenues that Spring were on pace to make $1 billion in sales faster than any other business in history. Let's agree that in October of 2010 your business was operating in over 150 markets in the USA, over 100 markets in Europe, Asia and South America and you had over 35 million registered users.
Now...
What if?
What if in the Fall of 2010 you were offered $3 billion to sell that business and then weeks later you're approached by another suitor who offers you over $5 billion to sell?
What if your 2011 projections indicated you were in good shape, pacing to deliver between $3 and $4 billion in revenues. Would you dare change anything?
It's the true story of Groupon and here's how they've answered those two what if questions...
They said no. They were not interested in selling (Yahoo! and Google were the rumored buyers)
and
They decided while business was good it was time to change things, invent another product and introduce a different business model.
Imagine that.
A company that's about two and a half years old which is on track to produce revenue equal to about 21% of US radio's total revenue in 2010 (using BIA/Kelsey estimate of $14.1 bil, and $3 bil rev assumption for Groupon) and instead of being laser focused on tweaking and optimizing their existing business model they've decided to also change up their own game, innovate and launch another business.
Before you continue reading, please watch the following video.
Clearly, Groupon and its competitors (over 100 similar US sites) are having an impact on local ad spending.
Allow me to suggest that Groupon Now has the potential of changing the local direct game yet again because its value proposition is fundamentally different. Groupon is putting the third screen to work and doing it in real-time, they've entered the brave new world of the mobile pure play.
"Mobile is huge for Groupon...I believe we could see us doing 50 percents of deals sold/purchased in the next couple of years" said Michael Shim, Groupon VP Mobile Partnerships. As eMoney writer Tricia Duryee reports "Mobile, along with social and local, will be one of the largest drivers for Groupon's deals business over the next few years...Shim said the service has also exceeded expectations, with more than 1,000 merchants already signed up to offer real-time deals. 'We’ve been inundated with demand. Groupon Now is about local discovery. What can I find around me?…We are just getting going on where we think it will take our business.'" [ref]
Introduced last week and more than 1,000 merchants already signed up. Pop quiz: what's your best take rate story? Is it a compelling one-sheet being used on the street and on your site?
My sense is there are strategic issues involved. Here are four to consider.
1. The practical notion of "Local" is being redefined. We're moving from the traditional big/generalized (e.g., DMA, SMSA, US Census block code) to the new small/personalized (think GPS or exact position within three meters). A new marketing grammar, a new sense of place, will be one of the second or third-order effects in the growing adoption of location-based services.
2. New players want in, others want bigger local shares. Local has not been 100% owned and operated by the usual suspects (i.e., the traditional incumbents including print, broadcast and out of home) for a while now but it's getting ever more competitive. Local and hyper-local is where everyone wants to be next. Everyone includes Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Pandora, and [insert the name of an advertising or ad-supported company here].
3. New rules of engagement are emerging and with them new expectations are being created. The metrics used in buying and evaluating local media will likely change and affect some share of local ad spend. From buys based upon audience estimates and proof of performance (run as ordered?) to registered users and completed transactions (products/services sold). Moreover, performance pressure will increase. From flights evaluated over days and weeks to flights evaluated over hours in real-time. In this new always-on connected world it's certainly possible that price and item copy will be placed, judged on actual in-the-moment purchase behaviors. Impulse purchasing is exploited, solutions defaulting to mobile (i.e., Help, I'm hungry or I'm bored). As ever, the research tool preferred by local retailers continues to be the cash register.
4. Creating awareness without generating completed transactions will become less and less attractive to buyers, especially those local merchants provided more performance-based options. Branding or pure image driven advertising will become more difficult to justify. John Wanamaker gets credit for the famous adage "Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don't know which half" but as AdWeek'sMichael Wolff wrote just yesterday on the subject of digital marketing and TV's upfront week "...15 years into our ability to measure the absolute effectiveness of the way and the methods by which we sell something, and, still, TV advertising, which measures nothing, guarantees no sales, offers no data, registers no interest, quantifies no desire, provides no follow-up, and which no sentient being watches anyway, is making more money than ever before. Waste works." [ref]
While I appreciate Michael's point of view there remains major work to be done on the metrics used in the buying and selling of digital media. Serious debate continues and we have yet to reach a consensus relative to accepted definitions and measures. Bravos to IAB for their ongoing efforts. Further, while Steve Jobs continues using TV to sell his iPhones and iPads I'll remain bullish on the potential of TV advertising done right. We'll stipulate here that doing TV right is not at all easy and most don't do it right, however, Apple stands out as a good example of just how powerful TV advertising can be. Target, the merchant, is another exemplary TV advertiser. There is, imo, a significant share of the $65.9 billion in annual US TV ad spend [2010 cit] that is pure waste.
"At every crossroads on the path that leads
to the future, tradition has placed 10,000 men
to guard the past."
Maurice Maeterlinck
What's a broadcaster to do?
To those working in radio, those progeny of the first generation wireless, the true real-time media pioneers, let me offer five suggestions. As well, let me encourage you to share your thoughts, ideas and suggestions via comments here below.
1. Game it up. At your next sales meeting, play the Groupon Now! video and give sellers the following homework assignment. "How do we pitch Big Frank? What is our value proposition that will blow Big Frank's face off? How will we help him to fill his empty tables?" Make it a pitch competition. On pitch day encourage brutally candid discussion. Vote first, second and third place winners. Let the sales team and a good representation of staff not on the sales team participate in the voting. For those already deep into "Deal of the Day" and other discount coupon strategies, how are you measuring up? Would Big Frank buy your offer over Groupon Now? Do you have a video that demonstrates how your program works? A video that clearly articulates value that the prospective client can understand? Does your value proposition match or exceed the one offered in the Groupon Now video? You must have and present a compelling, engaging story. Remember Leo Burnett's counsel on great advertising being three messages: "Here's what we've got. Here's what it will do for you. Here's how to get it."
2. Work your network. Start a serious conversation with others. What's happening with Groupon, LivingSocial, et al in your market and others? What are your colleagues (and clients) hearing, learning and doing? What's the RAB's best thinking on this? Take the advice of Dr. Jeffrey Cole and ensure that your learning curve is consistently steeper than your action curve. "You have to be paying attention, learning and watching." Do your homework. Be prepared for your client's phone call asking you "What do you know about Groupon?"
3. Make something happen. Get in the game. Take measured action and experiment. Be willing to fail and learn how to fail faster. Be agile. Embrace iterative development. Take the winner of your pitch competition (see #1 above) for a test drive. Carefully study the results. Revisit your design and fine-tune or blow up and move on to your second place winner. Repeat. Move on to your third place winner. Hold another pitch competition.
4. Give your team a better chance to win. Be the best that radio can be. The anecdotal evidence would suggest 7 of every 8 potential merchant deals are rejected by Groupon. Can you imagine a radio sales manager failing to approve 7 out of 8 orders for new business? Even if it turns out not to be true let's admit it...7 of every 8 being rejected makes a killer urban ad legend for Groupon. If what Groupon is doing is working it's working, in part, because they do qualify their clients and work within a creative framework designed to optimize performance on the Groupon platform. Radio should consider taking a more pro-active, aggressive approach in working with clients to develop creative that plays into radio's inherent strengths and utilize smart scheduling of that creative to maximize the chances of producing best results for the client.
5. Check out what Fred Jacobs and the digital ninjas of Jacobs Media have to say about all of this. They're offering a good read. Make the jump to the always informative jacoBLOGhere.
Keep in mind Groupon was Andrew Mason's second attempt at using the platform he developed. His first, ThePoint, failed to produce the results he expected but he didn't give up, he moved on to invent Groupon. Now he's inventing Groupon 2.0 What's your team up to?
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter.
Try again. Fail again. Fail better.
Samuel Beckett
Footnote: What did Google really want? My guess is Google - if they really did make an offer - already having the superior tech skills, wanted Groupon's creative staff and their local sales team. It would have been a very savvy accretive acquisition in their local strategy. They have since launched Google Offers.
"The true test of being comfortable with someone else is the ability to share silence." Frank Tyger
"There must always be some advantage on one side or the other, and it is better that advantage should be had by talents than by chance." Samuel Johnson
"The ability to have our own way, and at the same time convince others they are having their way, is a rare thing among men. Among women, it is as common as eyebrows." Thomas Bailey Aldrich
A beautiful Spring day here in Madison. Today I'd like to share a video and my notes of a keynote session from last month's ad:tech SF 2011 conference. As readers of this blog are aware, I am a big fan of Dr. Jeffrey Cole. Simply put, he's brilliant. Dr. Cole is Director of Center for the Digital Future at the USC Annenberg School. The video of his keynote, available via YouTube using the following link, is a must-see. Trends, Fads & Transformation: The Impact of the Internet.
Following are my notes from the keynote which are by no means complete and should not be considered a substitute for watching Jeff's performance which is, indeed, a tour de force.
---------------------------
Your learning curve must be much steeper than your action curve. You have to be paying attention, learning and watching.
We lost a great opportunity in the 1940s understanding the impact of television. We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s. Digital is going to be far more important than television. Eleven years ago began the massive project, tracking of digital, first the web and now mobile that should have been conducted with television in the 1940s. Started in the US now covering 35 countries around the world. For eleven years now we've gone back to the same people year after year. Watching as non-users moved to dialup, as dialup users went to broadband, we watch as 2% drop off the web each year and want to know who are the people who leave and why and more importantly do they return and if so when and what brings them back. Eleven years in we continue to track the never users and want to know how the people who have never been online do things in a world where most of us are online.
Highlights. What we've found over the last eleven years.
Schedules have almost disappeared. The old way. Newspapers - once a day. Having to wait 24 hours for an update doesn't work anymore. How up to the moment does a newspaper online have to be? The answer is thirty to sixty seconds. Music used to have one of the most formalized schedules of any medium. Artists would produce about forty minutes worth of music, (about 12 songs) and release in a cycle of about every 18-24 months. For some people this never worked. Prince is an example. There was no way to release ten albums a year. Today we are waiting for the new model. TV was on such a schedule that the greatest success in the history of magazine publishing - TV Guide - came from a magazine that listed what was on television.
There are too many choices. In 1975, in the average American city, most of us had seven television channels, 90% of viewing was on three - ABC, CBS and NBC. Thirty years later, most markets had well over one hundred channels and 90% of viewing was on six or seven channels. You give people infinitely more choice and we only move out or branch out a little bit. Restaurants owners know that. 20 page menus frustrate people. They can't make choices, there's too much to choose from. Most people in a restaurant want eight to ten choices. Enough choices to feel they can actually make a choice but not so many that they're overwhelmed. On the web 90% of Internet time is spent in 15 places and all the other millions of places account for less than 10% of our Internet time. We're overwhelmed by choice.
All media will survive, but most will be smaller players in a digital era.
The Film Business
Been shrinking for a long time. It's high point was in the 1930s and 40s before the introduction of television. This year film has experienced its most serious decline in a very long time, film attendance so far this year is down 20%. Hollywood is looking at economic factors but is settling on the fact that it's probably the quality of films. DVDs which kept the film industry afloat during much of the 21st century are disappearing and not coming back. DVDs will be gone in four years as everything moves into the cloud. Movie theaters have been seriously overbuilt, many/most will close or convert, become smaller but remain important. A war is brewing between the studios and the theaters. Studios want to release films on the day they're released to home video as well as into the theaters. Theater owners can't catch a break. Studios now want to take films that have been in the theaters for two months and make them available on home video. Theater owners said if they do that they won't run trailers for any of the studios. At the same time as we're seeing film move closer into the home and the distinction between the home screen and the film screen is getting shorter and narrower and the quality of the sets is getting bigger. Theater owners are about to experience another serious problem. Historically, business model gave major share (80-90%) of box office to studios in first weeks of showing, share to theater owners increased becoming majority in later weeks. Most films are out of theaters now within three weeks. In a typical year of 52 weeks, 40 different films will have been number one. With the exception of Avatar we have not seen a film in the last five years that has been number one more than three weeks in a row. With declining share of box office revenues theater owners were hiking up the cost of refreshments. The minute calories counts are required on movie theater food the game is over. A large popcorn and a Coke is about 1,600 calories. Power: those who create good content. The old adage "Content is King" is true.
Music Industry (or what's left of it)
What it takes to be #1. It used to take selling 15 million copies of an album to be number one, last year the number one selling album of the year, Eminem's Recovery, sold 3.4 million copies. Digital in the next three years will pass the CD sources of revenue. CDs will disappear. Digital only platform in 5 years. Music becomes supplemental, becoming the place you get familiar with the music, an ancillary market to the real money in touring, merchandising, advertising. Cloud new home. Power: everyone. Consumer, artist, everybody except the music company.
Book "Publishing"
Long before the Internet, per capita sales have been pitiful for a generation. To get on the New York Times best-seller list out of a country of 300 million people you have to sell 15 to 20 thousand copies of a book. We are not a country of book-reading people. 50% of us buy zero books a year. And of the 50% of us who buy books 70% of them buy one or two books a year. Books are bought by a small minority. Amazon last year now makes more revenue from its digital sales than from its hard cover sales. "Books" will survive but we'll pay a very precious premium to own. We will own few (30 to 40) and pay a lot. Beautiful, expensive books the new reality. Self-publishing which used to be a necessity for some people who couldn't get their books published and used to be low rent and no status now looks like a smart business choice. Power: Authors.
Newspapers
Teenage habit broken. We know thirty years ago teenagers didn't read newspapers but started to when they got into their 20s and 30s. Today they don't read newspapers and the evidence is clear, they never will. When Internet penetration gets to 30% offline newspaper sales begin to decline. 30% is the line that changes everything. India, where internet penetration is at 15% newspaper sales are skyrocketing. By the time they get to 30 they will begin to decline. The sad truth for newspapers is every time a newspaper reader dies he or she is not being replaced by a new reader. In America, newspapers have less than five years remaining. In 1900 we had 600 communities that had two or more newspapers. Today we have six that have two or more newspapers. Instead of counting down the two newspapers towns, we are now counting up the no newspaper towns. Power: Global Players. Examples: New York Times - growth last ten years has been outside of New York not inside of New York. Wall Street Journal. Washington Post. Four or five "global" American voices.
The iPad: Transformational Remarkable device. It's been out a year and no one has really caught up with Apple. Apple has moved the goal post before the other teams have even taken the field. The one thing that absolutely boggles the mind is "I turn it on and one second later I'm working. There's no three or four minute boot. That one out of ten times produces the blue screen of death" Keep in mind newspapers and magazines were never going to do very well on the internet until now because the internet was a "lean forward experience." Nobody wants to lean forward and read a newspaper. They might read an article in the newspaper. Jeff Bezos figured out that if people were going to read books electronically it had to be in the same environment they actually read books, leaning back, in bed, in the bathtub, he created the Kindle. The iPad also marks the beginning of the end for the mouse.
Television is the medium that grows not shrinks
People will watch on a third screen. First screen becomes better. The gap between the home and the theater is narrower than it has ever been. Television couldn't grow until now. It could only grow as it escaped the home. Television becomes our constant companion. We are witness to ratings growth in "live event" television because of "co-viewing." We've always had co-viewing at home when people were together but now people who are not together are watching the same televised event via social networking as if they are together. Laugh tracks may disappear from television because of this new co-viewing via social networking. Movies don't have laugh tracks because producers know we will be watching movies with other people. Power: Content creators and viewers. When, where and how viewers want.
New Trends
Screen time is exploding. In 1975, we spent 16 hours in front of a screen, last year it was up to 36 hours, we think it will be over 50 hours in the next three to four years. If you look at a teenager there's not a moment when they are not in front of a screen except school and sleep. People almost never lose their mobile phones. Mobile phones are important in our lives.The reason is if we leave our phone on the table in a restaurant we can't make it to the front door of the restaurant before we're reaching for it. We can't get far enough away from it to lose it.
Privacy concerns reach a peak.
If digital content is to survive it's going to be largely through targeted digital advertising. Targetability with limits provides a great bonus to the media owner who can charge ten times as much to give an audience that the advertiser wants. A boon to the advertiser who can reverse the most powerful quote in the history of advertising - I know half my advertising budget is wasted, I just don't know which half. Boon to the consumer who can start receiving advertising that is relevant and engaging. Fun once the shock wears away.
What happens with privacy and targetability? Four simple things. Newspapers, television producers, advertisers have to tell their customers, their readers and viewers what information is being collected and why and what they intend to do with it. Privacy policy statements (written by lawyers) must not be written for lawyers. Serious penalties for anyone who violates those policies. Simple opt-out or opt-in but those who opt-out may have to start paying for what other people get for free.
Social networking is the real deal. To a teenager an online community is like a nightclub and when the uncool kids start showing up at the nightclub or the nightclub becomes too popular you're outta there. What's the worst thing that could happen to you at at nightclub? Your mother shows up. And now your mother wants to friend you on Facebook. Facebook will climb close to a billion users. We are not likely to see another monolithic community like Facebook again.
Learning curve must be much steeper than your action curve. You have to be paying attention, learning and watching.
Many of us are tired of technology defining our lives. We call this phenomenon "E-nuff already." Wanting the benefits of technology without all the disadvantages. We don't go to sleep without answering all our email. People are looking for balance. They want control.
Moving away from the PC-based internet to mobile devices. Only 4 to 6 percent of people who own PCs will actually need PCs (desktops, laptops, netbooks). When the iPad came out the first question was is this a fourth screen or a replacement for the second screen? Firmly convinced this replaces the second screen for the majority of us.
Mobile is everything. The internet is going everywhere through mobile. 5.7 billion people share having a mobile phone in their life.
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Bravos to Jeff for yet another truly amazing presentation, he's doing work that matters. Thanks too to ad:tech for sharing the video.
