"I'm not finished, because I'm still curious." Barry Diller

"Nature is garrulous to the point of confusion; let the artist be truly taciturn." Paul Klee

"However much you knock at nature's door, she will never answer you in comprehensible words." Ivan Turgenev

Today's image: Claudia, lost in the Garage by Portrait and Fashion Photographer. Great shooting. Thank you for sharing.


Danger, Will Robinson: Thanks to Barron's scribe Alan Abelson we learn the updated report from those smart guys at hedge fund T2 Partners bears title language including "We are still in the early innings of the bursting of the housing and credit bubbles..."

Then there's the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey hitting a 28-year low, and that pesky $4-a-gallon gasoline. S&P 500 first-quarter earnings down 25.9% from the same quarter last year. [Up and Down Wall Street, 5/19]

The recent buzz about online rates is CPMs have headed south. My sense is online is still pacing up at 20 something percent. The danger for sellers is depending on the usual suspects to deliver their month. Sales leadership needs to be more focused on developing new business including new categories. While this environment is certainly challenging to sellers now is a great time for buyers to invest in advertising. Rates are attractive and you'll gain share of voice (especially valid should your competitors fail to spend). The most optimum time to advertise is when others are not. As baseball player Wee Willie Keeler famously said "...hit 'em where they ain't."

Buzz: Vegas odds say...Mr Softy buys Yahoo (at least Search now says Arrington) then Facebook (so say others). Stay tuned.

Pre-order: Outliers the new book by Malcolm Gladwell is now on offer at Amazon for $18.47 - info here. Related 800-CEO-READ

Say it ain't so: Firefox checks their own box. Do the custom install option and you can uncheck the box making Firefox your default browser. Shame on Mozilla. Opt-out, bad. Opt-in, good.

If I give you my business card, do I give you the right to publish it on the internet? The Comcast-Plaxo, CBS-CNET deals and the important data portability issue (think last week's Facebook smack down of Google) gets thrown around and the discussion is nothing less than informative, if not plainly and purely entertaining (thanks to Steve Gillmor, Sam Whitmore, Michael Arrington, Robert Scoble, Chris Saad, Marc Canter) in the latest Gillmor Gang podcast. Don't start tomorrow without it [Audio, MP3 Heads up, NSFW - language]. Bravos, guys. Good show! [Related: Marc Canter details his argument here]

Agenda item: The issues discussed in the Gillmor Gang podcast above are more important than one might first believe. We are at the beginning, the early days of a very real "data war." This amounts to nothing less than an arms race for some kind of control of user identity. Fair warning - get deep into this issue, now. What's in your ToS (and how well you play w/others) will play a role in the future of what's in your wallet.

Congrats & cheers: May sweeps winners, Fox leads 18-49, CBS leads in households and total viewers. The strike seems to have been the primary factor in 18-49 viewing being down almost 20% vs last year. The young guns of wireless being honored by Edison Media Research [names named here] Ken Fisher and team Ars Technica acquired by Conde Nast.[Ken's announcement]

Bonus x 3: 21 Accents + Ex-Boyfriend Jewelry + Ztail

Lost in space, the reality show: They call it "The Pioneer Anomaly." For reasons yet unknown something has dragged Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 a quarter-million miles off course. Robert Lee Hotz, WSJ's Science Journal editor chats about the anomaly in the following video. Could Newton and Einstein be wrong?

"Ask not what you can do for your country, ask what's for lunch." Orson Welles

"Art is about making something out of nothing and selling it." Frank Zappa

"The only reason people want to be masters of the future is to change the past." Milan Kundera

Today's image: Tulips at St Mary the Virgin by Monster. Beautiful. Thanks for sharing.

Playing the hand we have
Competing for the future

In the latest Barron's (Up and Down Wall Street, 4/21) we get some insight from David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch who "is convinced that recession, as he puts it, is now a reality, not a forecast, and that the only question is: Will it be, as most Street and bureaucratic observers think (pray?), short and shallow or, as he assays at least possible, deep and prolonged?" Meanwhile, for another pov on government issued economic stats, please let me recommend reading and keeping up with the analysis of John Williams via Shadow Government Statistics. My thanks to Barron's and Alan Abelson.

So, take your pick. Either everything is just fine with the economy, we are heading into some kind of economic trouble or we're already in some stage of business cycle distress. My thought is we will fare best once we accept the worst possible case and act accordingly on that assumption.

In the near-term we should expect, without regard to online, a flat or soft ad spend. We are probably safe to expect nothing from media stocks, especially broadcast and cable. If Jeff Immelt can't make it happen in this market there's no reason to believe the broadcasting and cable CEOs will be able to make anything happen. As Jerry Reed once said "Pray for intestinal fortitude, work hard and keep the faith. Oh, and pray for good luck, you're gonna need it."

How about a mix of metaphor. Our task is to play the hand we hold, addressing the ball from the lie. A classic opening line by the great Graham Greene comes to mind...

"A story has no beginning or end; arbitrarily one chooses
that moment of experience from which to look back
or from which to look ahead"

Today let me present an exercise you might find valuable. We use this on the day job, it works.

"What would have to happen..."

What would have to happen in order for us to make our numbers? This month? This quarter? This fiscal? Asking "What would have to happen" is a good beginning for developing very specific go forward strategies and tactics.

Before we ask that question let's survey the landscape, take a measure of where we are, discover our starting point. Here's the five-point model suggested by Gordon R. Sullivan...

1. Observe
2. Reflect
3. Decide
4. Act
5. Learn

And Sullivan's related three questions...

1. What is happening?
2. What is not happening?
3. What can I do to influence the action?

Our responses to the "What would have to happen" question are informed by intellectually honest observation, reflection and decision. This week gather your team, ask Sullivan's three questions and then ask...What would have to happen?

The gap not the goal

For this exercise to be effective you'll benefit from adopting a certain pov. Rather than focusing on the goal, focus on the gap. For example, if your monthly sales goal is 1.3 mil and you're pacing to finish with 1.1 mil, focus on the .2 mil gap. What would have to happen to close, run, and bill another .2 mil in the month? You're #2 25-54 with a 2.0 rating, the leader holds a 2.3 rating, focus on the .3 rating gap. What would have to happen to improve our rating by .3?

Act and learn. Mind the gap.

Closely monitor activity, keep a tight feedback loop, establish standards to grade activity and measure progress. Take a lesson from retail - measure daily. Create a dashboard to track activity and outcome. Continue to ask Sullivan's three questions and constantly ask the big question "What would have to happen?"

Make something amazing happen this week.

Grapes: Playing catch-up on recent finds - all reds, each around $10 or less. My love affair with the wines of Argentina (Mendoza) continues, here are two more to enjoy: Dona Paula Los Cardos, Malbec, 2006 and Gascon, Malbec, 2006. Four others to share. Ken Forrester, Petit, Pinotage, 2007, South Africa. Oxford Landing, GSM, 2005, South Australia (56% Grenache, 33% Shiraz, 11% Mourvedre). Seigneurs de Bergerac, Bergerac, 2005, France (45% Cab, 45% Merlot, 10% Cab Franc). Santa Rita, 120, Cabernet Sauvignon, 2006, Chile.