"Whose cruel idea was it for the word 'lisp' to have an 's' in it." George Carlin

"The 'silly question' is the first intimation of some totally new development." Alfred North Whitehead

"Silence is one of the hardest arguments to refute." Josh Billings

Today's image: Keukenhof by prophead. Awesome. Thanks for sharing.

Change involves deciding. You can decide to embrace change making the best of it, to fight change working to preserve some version of the status quo or to ignore change. No matter how you decide, change - to some degree - will happen. So, how does one decide? My suggestion is you need to make an informed decision. You need to do your homework.

Here's an example. In the last century Arbitron proposed a series of major changes to advance radio ratings. One of the most controversial was the introduction of monthly data, Arbitrends. Industry opinion was mixed. Some saw "trends" as mere escalation in an ongoing ratings war, an answer to the already established Birch Monthly. Some predicted "trends" would fall into the hands of buyers and disrupt market pricing. Many were concerned with the statistical validity of the data. All objected to paying more to get the new data. "Didn't we already pay for that data? Now, we have to pay for it again?" being typical of the comments.

We did our homework and became the first major market group to sign an Arbitrends contract. Hearing of this signing the majority of our peers said we had made an evil pact, a Faustian bargain. Emotions ran high. We had done something that would only encourage Arbitron. Surely, "trends" would cause irrefutable harm in unimaginable ways. We had sold out, taken the wrong side.

In those early days of Arbitrends the product was not without problems. We made it through the changes by working with Arbitron. Things were made better.

Which brings me to PPM. Radio needs electronic measurement. It's time. We can and should work with Arbitron and any other firms that care to take on that challenge. We need to keep in mind that three years from now media measurement will be as different from today as today is from twenty years ago. Let's be a part of that process. One more quote...

"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shenseki

Congrats & cheers: Bruce Ravid on yesterday's very cool radio Raveathon on Madison student radio station WSUM. During the broadcast Bruce featured a rich mix of music, conversation and a special announcement. Chancellor John Wiley announced a donation will be made made to assist WSUM in moving to new studios this summer.

"Playing 'bop' is like playing scrabble with all the vowels missing." Duke Ellington

"Foolproof systems do not take into account the ingenuity of fools." Gene Brown

"Without music, life would be a mistake." Nietzsche

Today's image: Ode to Ansel Adams by Thomas Hawk. Beautiful. Thanks for sharing.

Confusing activity with progress

The temptation is to be seduced by activity, seduced into believing that activity is progress. It's not.

Activity and progress should be related, accepting the imperfect correlation; progress being measurable movement toward the objective, the productive outcome of that activity which proves effective.

The key is measurement and coming to terms with measure as the arbiter.

Establish a solid feedback loop and act on the findings. Understand what's working, what's not working and constantly change up the game to improve the result.

Inertia and incrementalism are the enemies. As discussed here previously, it's the strategy trap of focusing exclusively on the numerator. The real leverage is in changing the denominator.

One needs to come to grasp the new reality and to get a deep understanding of the developing sea change - the rock n roll of this generation is interactive media. The digital natives are not playing by our rule sets, they're choosing to do what we once did, they're making it up from scratch. This does ensure one new practice to be the safe and conservative best bet - the smart guys are putting their five year operating plan on a magic slate.

To get some perspective, let's look at some big numbers.

The US measured media ad spend in 2007 was about $149 billion [TNS]. The direct marketing spend in 2007 was about $173 billion [DMA]. The subtotal being $322 billion ($1.8 b FSI dollars duplicated in the TNS data).

RAB put US radio in 2007 at $21.3 billion (RAB measures are significantly different than TNS for radio). TVB using TNS data placed 2007 US broadcast TV at $46.5 billion. IAB posted 2007 online revenues at $21.2 billion. The subtotal being $89 billion.

Then there are all those other guys. Let's take one.

The promotional products industry captured more than $18.8 billion in 2006 expenditures [PPAI]. That's a bunch of money to promote products, services and companies one coffee mug, mouse pad or free sample at a time.

Get this - there are more than 20,000 promotional consultant firms in the US alone and that's 2007 data. Compare that to the 17,412 radio and television stations now on the air. Dividing broadcast by two, as a very rough estimate, equals a ground game of 8,706 vs 20,000. PPAI, the promotional products trade association, is older than broadcasting, they celebrated their 100th anniversary in 2003.

We won't even get into product placement, restroom ads or gaming. The point is, by any measure, there's an incredible amount of money in play. Why think small in a space this big.

My suggestion is radio teams should be playing for more than their share of $21.3 billion, TV staffs should be fighting for more than their piece of the $46.5 billion.

The real opportunities, the big money and growth are outside the silo, it's supplemental by nature, it's real off the rez biz dev stuff. That's where you'll discover progress. Inside the silo, it's all activity. Growth vs stasis and entropy. Denominator vs numerator. Why spend time and valuable resources getting better at a game that is being played less and less. Change the game.

Every platform counts, no single one being more important than the other in share of mind or agenda. It's not about radio or TV. It's about audio, video and all things interactive. My notion is no professionals are better positioned to reinvent audio and video, to reimagine wireless than broadcasters, the first and second tribes of wireless. In the emerging worlds of pro-am development incredible opportunities abound. It's a leadership issue, we need to get serious and compete for the future. Incumbency is increasingly irrelevant, we need to employ the remaining leverage we have and do it now. Use it or lose it may sound like high drama but you may wish to think again about that before dismissing the potential window of opportunity now present.

No, it's not the job you signed up for but it's the one at hand. What's needed now is imagination and game-changing innovation. The great news is the bigger than you can possibly imagine payoff is prospectively available for the taking and it's right here - outside your silo. See ya there.

Getting the band back together: WLS, The Big 89 Rewind. Kudos to radio programming ace Kipper McGee.

Don't miss it, if you can: Impresario Bruce Ravid rides into MadTown tomorrow and takes temporary control of transmission at radio station WSUM. Certain to be more memorable moments of Madison media madness, join the famous '74 grad as he kicks off the 7-hour Raveathon beginning at 1pm tomorrow. To ensure the high standards WSUM listeners have come to expect (and for Bruce's own personal safety), students and station staff will be on hand to observe and participate. For locals it's 91.7 FM, while the world tunes in via stream here. My thanks to radio programming ace Tom Teuber for the advanced warning.

Congrats & cheers: Advertising ace David Verklin signed to lead Project Canoe, the cable tv industry initiative tasked with creating new approaches to targeted sales. Expect the announcement next month. Caroline Marks signs on as GM of the yet to launch IAC news aggregator site headed by the uber-cool Tina Brown. Tom Taylor celebrates one year of posts at Radio-Info.

"Every tool carries with it the spirit by which it has been created." Werner Heisenberg

"The unlike is joined together, and from differences results the most beautiful harmony." Heraclitus

"The prerequisite of originality is the art of forgetting, at the proper moment, what we know." Arthur Koestler

Today's image: Singel at dusk by Mor (bcnbits). Wonderful. Thanks for sharing!

Tom Peters writes a great deal of relevant stuff. Late in 2004 he created a list and titled it CEOs Are Idiots! (Project05, 240-page PDF, free download here). Here are six from Tom's list.

CEOs are idiots because they...

1. UNDERestimate the Threat to their Existence; OVERestimate their Resilience

2. Fail to spend Hyper-aggressively on IS/IT...fail to exploit fully the web

5. Recruit mostly from Conventional Sources; have a Low Tolerance for RiskTakers - Freaks

6. [Are] Less than 24/7 "TalentFanatics"

7. Favor "MarketShare" over MarketCreation

8. Believe that "Process" beats "Passion," "Analysis" beats "Action"

Bonus: Listen to adults having their way with a student radio station. Bruce Ravid hosts today's take over at WSUM in Madison. Check it out here.



Image: Techcrunch. Duncan Riley live blogging the SJ keynote from Macworld here.

700Mhz: Google is on the list along with Cox, Advance/Newhouse, Bresnan. John Eggerton has the story at B&C here.

"Wood burns because it has the proper stuff in it; and a man becomes famous because he has the proper stuff in him." Goethe

"Whatever course you have chosen for yourself, it will not be a chore but an adventure if you bring to it a sense of the glory of striving - if your sights are set far above the merely secure and mediocre." David Sarnoff

"He is the best leader who most fully understands the nature of things, so that his plans are not doomed to ultimate failure; who possesses an active, far-ranging imagination which can see many possibilities; who has a sense of values, so that among possibilities he is able to choose the most excellent; who has a sense of order, to give form, design and program to the values and purposes he selects; who has practical sense and judgment, and so uses the most feasible means to accomplish his ends; and who has the energy and enthusiasm to carry his plans persistently toward fruition." Arthur E. Morgan

"Confirm the instructions you give others, and their commitments, in writing. Don't assume it will get done!" William Swanson

Swanson's Unwritten Rules of Management: unwritten rule number eleven...

"The point is that we often believe we have communicated clearly when we have only transmitted clearly. It is just as important to make sure that the message has been properly received and that you and your team agree on what everybody is committing to.

Confirming instructions and commitments in writing helps to give structure to the communications process and to ensure that everybody knows what needs to be done, and who will do it.

In addition, verbally ask others to replay your instructions back to you, then put the instructions in your own words and make sure you still get an affirmative nod from the recipients.

Keep the confirmation of instructions and commitments clear and crisp so as not to bureaucratize the process."

Bravo to William Sullivan! Dedicating understandings to the written word is important for all involved. Equally important is his suggestion to ask others to "replay your instructions back to you." Smart, very smart. Please keep in mind, it's not what you say that's important, it's what they hear.

In my experience, there are eight words that will help you to make a complete and total difference in practically every outcome; it's one of the secrets that sets the winners apart from everyone else. It's one of the golden rules of business, break it and you put yourself at risk, you set yourself up for failure or, in the least, a potentially expensive disagreement. Here are eight words to live by, no exceptions, period...

"If it's not in writing, it's not real"

Google's Marissa Mayer on The Future of Search, a presentation at Searchnomics 2007. Nitin Karandikar provides an excellent recap via Read/Write Web here. Jeremiah Owyang offers up good detail on Marissa's session via Web Strategy here. Kudos to Nitin and Jeremiah for their outstanding coverage of the session.

Danger, Will Robinson: FTC suggests caution in any Net Neutrality regulation. Staci D. Kramer has the story via paidContent here. My sense is this, properly, is an FCC issue. By their 5-0 vote to do nothing the FTC leaves any decision making to others. The telecom tribe will read this FTC report adoption as favorable.

Very cool iPhone vid: NYT's Dave Pogue shows off his new phone here (YouTube). Bravo Dave, very well done!

Oldies revisited, again: Sean Ross reviews the bidding on oldies..."Oldies broadcasters have to ask themselves: What can they do to reactivate the passion for the format that now manifests itself as several potential shares' worth of phantom cume? Stations hear from those listeners when they change format. But broadcasters--particularly those considering new Oldies stations--need to figure out how to activate that passion now." Bravo Sean! Read his entire post with comments here.

Bonus: Bruce Ravid weighs in with a field report to wit "I was recently in the bay area for a few days...I thought that KFOG was the most compelling station that I heard in the market. I've always thought Benson has done a good job, but it seemed even more enjoyable this time around." Kudos to Dave Benson and team on getting the Ravid Rave and thanks, as always, to Bruce for the intel. Bruce has posted his latest Go Deep webcast here. Highly recommended.

"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." Michelangelo

Prom Queen is the daily 90 second online soap targeting teens. The property launched by Vuguru, the Michael Eisner backed firm, is off to a good start. Averaging about 200K views a day the short has managed to capture more than five million views since its April 2 debut. MySpace, where the offering has gained 18,000 friends gets a sneak on each new show. Kudos to Michael and his team. MediaWeek's Mike Shields has more here. (Thanks to Cory for the tip).

Congrats & cheers: To all Webby Awards winners. Our favorite Ninja gets a Webby - Best Actor. Flickr picked up a bunch. Hometown heroes - The Onion - picked up the humor hardware. Our favorite film of last year, Pan's Labyrinth, takes the Movie and Film category. last.fm wins the music category. BBC tops News. NPR walks with the Podcast category. BBC's Radio One wins Radio. The gang at LinkedIn wins the Services and the Social Networking awards. CurrentTV voted best Television (The Office gets a People's Voice nod). Cute Overload wins the Weird award. Check out all of the winners here.

Counter-intuitive wins: Kudos and bravos to NBC News on hiring on Mark Whitaker as Senior VP. Steve Capus stands to gain some (needed) outside perspective. That Mark has solid news chops without the baggage of any experience in TV news makes this an enlightened hire. Bill Carter has the story at NYT here.

Lee Arnold on the state of rock radio: "As PPM rolls out market-by-market, Rock radio’s true ratings shares will finally be counted." Bravo Lee! Read his post here. (P.S. Should you own or operate a Rock station you'll benefit from getting Lee involved. If you are lucky enough to be in a market without a strong rocker consider inviting Lee in for a candid and confidential evaluation. You'll be glad you did.)

Rock review: The uber-cool Bruce Ravid checked in over the weekend to rave about the Arcade Fire performance at Coachella. "The big story will be tonight's Rage Against the Machine reunion but I think Arcade Fire showed last night that they have a chance to be relevant for the next couple of decades. Of all the 'indie' bands, I'd say they have the best chance of that." Thanks Bruce. Agree with your read. Us kids know those Phillips grads and their coconspirators are the goods.

Fine red wine for 10 bucks or less: My love affair with the grapes of Spain continues unabashed. Here are six red table wines we recently enjoyed most - exceptional values all. Luzon Jumilla Spain 2005, Protocolo 2004 Vino De La Tierra De Castilla, Sierra Cantabria Rioja Red Wine 2004, Codice 2004 Vino De La Tierra De Castilla, Vega Sindoa 2003 (a Cab & Tempranillo blend), Borsao 2005 (a Garnacha & Tempranillo blend). Cheers!

Thank you very much: Lots of great questions related to my series of posts on hiring. Thanks for the emails. My responses tomorrow along with my take on the latest round of Winter radio books.

"They told us to break all the rules." J.D. Freeman

Kudos to my pal J.D. , his programming chief Duane Doherty and CC Dallas DOS Kelly Kibler on the launch of Lone Star 92.5

Thanks to Bruce Ravid. Enjoyed some great conversation and the usual good groceries at The Avenue Bar with Bruce and Tom Teuber. Check out Bruce's webcast Go Deep here.

During that discussion with Bruce and Tom we talked about online music sites including last.fm, seems the buzz this morning is a Viacom team is said to be in the UK trying to buy them. John Carney at DealBreaker has the scoop here.

Gail Shister writes about Katie, her well done review of the bidding, CBS evening blues, via The Philadelphia Inquirer here. Bravo Gail!