"Luck, chance, and catastrophe affect business as they do all human endeavors. But luck never built a business. Prosperity and growth come only to the business that systematically finds and exploits its potential. No matter how successfully a business organizes itself for the challenges and opportunities of the present, it will still be far below its optimum performance. Its potential is always greater than its realized actuality...What are we afraid of, what do we see as a threat to this business - and how can we use it as an opportunity?" Peter Drucker

Jacques Steinberg writes about the Katie, Charlie and Brian ratings race, via NYT here. The story is not that Katie wins another week but rather what a tight fight it has become.

Emmis Chicago: Tim Duke posts a good trend at the Loop. New morning show bows at KQX. Have not heard the new morning venture but former Chicago funny man Larry Wilson phoned to remind me of something my friend Rick Sklar once advised "wait a month, then listen." Wise counsel. I'll check the show next month (and await the first review by Robert Feder)

Microsoft has MSN Video in Beta - take a peak at Soapbox here (you may also request an invitation to this invitation only Beta).

Road Trip! She's back - in a brand new show. Amanda kicks off her five week road trip and invites you along here Bravo Amanda, welcome back and good luck; travel safe.

Trends: Univision Romantica KLVE, #1 in LA posting a 5.0, KIIS steady 4.8 for 2nd place tie with Univision Regional Mex KSCA; KFI first to tie with KROQ for third, 4.5 to 3.9, JACK holds a 3.1 (to quote PJ "In all of art it's the singer not the song," it's Kevin not the format that's winning here), KLSX 1.4

In the city the CBS trio each remains under a 2. WNEW 1.8, CBS-F 1.7, FNY 1.5. WLTW holds first with a 5.8, SBS WSKQ close second with 5.7 (SKQ does best LTW 25-54). Gary Nolan one of the players that put WLTW on the map is reviewing his options - good man, we are certain to see him starring in a brand new show soon. The CBS trio is a storehouse of incredible potential waiting to be unlocked by the right programmers.

In Chicago KQX and JACK each post a 1.7; WGN continues to lead posting a 5.8, WGCI 5.4 for second; CKG remains stuck at a 0.9 - the station needs stronger local talent in addition to the brilliant Steve Dahl. The S&T experiment has clearly failed. The tragedy here is S&T don't know what they don't know. Left alone to create a program they have tried, done their best and failed. It may not have been the best decision to put them into the midday without also providing the direction and support needed to build a show, however, it is now time to either get serious about building a show or find a new show. Leaving the show as is, hoping for better numbers, expecting an audience to find the show, all exactly wrong. My sense is management failed S&T. As my Georgia relatives would say "something bad wrong here." Too bad, perhaps S&T had potential, we may never know.

Congrats & Cheers: Journal promotes Tom Land to corporate head of programming. Smart move - smart guy.

Got a handle on Web 2.0? Think again if you said yes. It's feeling like 1999 all over again here

You don't ask, you don't get. Bravo to Tom Webster and the Edison Media Research gang! Tom is posting the findings of the latest EMR study, a follow-on from 1993 of 12-24 listening. Here's the topline...

• 12-17 TSL down 22% since 1993
• 18-24 TSL down 24% since 1993
• 12-17 boys who report no weekly radio listening: 11+%
• Declines in 12-34 TSL and PUR
  

Tom will be posting a brief of topline daily, starting today, here

The implication, of course, is we have a product problem. Check that, it's more of a lack of product problem. However, the real issue here is not programming but sales, it was ever thus. Fred Jacobs makes note of an interesting development, media buyers searching for 18-34s using non-traditional media here. Can't blame the buyers or brand marketing folks. They have a market to reach and will do whatever is necessary to move their goods. Truth is the first tribe of wireless got outta dodge. Quest for and obsession about 25+ being driven by management under serious near-term pressure to deliver. And so we end up with more and more flavors of oldies based "new" formats. We continue to have a leadership problem in broadcast. A failure of imagination. Some teams are doing an exceptional job just not enough. CC in the city captures adults (WLTW) and youth (Z100), adult females (WLTW) and adult males (WAXQ). Bonneville deserves credit for a previous attempt at the same strategy, a youth targeted CHR to compliment KOIT. And there are examples of excellent youth targeted stations - Entercom in Milwaukee has done an superb job attracting the youth market with Brian Kelly's WXSS. More than enough stations, given the size of most market clusters today, are available to develop both youth and geezers with cash formats. Only three issues stand in the way of innovation, three road blocks preventing the investment and creation of killer Radio 2.0 - our sales teams, our attitudes about serving (and selling) the youth market (and the geezers with cash crowd), our near-term fiscal needs (esp those of public companies). The first step is to face reality as it is, not as it was, nor as we wish it to be. The second step is to embrace innovation, seriously. Let me add one other action item, a plea for public companies to stop doing quarterly calls. Since there is no requirement to do a call why create the unneccessary exposure? Why invite criticism? The market's not radio friendly at this point and since they only care about "growth" let us get a grasp on that story first. Finally, let me encourage you to follow Tom's posts and please join me in thanking the EMR crew for sharing.

Stay tuned: Michigan Avenue Music Row Alumni. Paul Gallis is up to nothing but good, again. Details to follow.

BONUS - Bandwidth well spent, set the wayback machine for 2003: Enjoy The Doc & Dave Show, World of Ends here